Open Ballot: Is Ubuntu on the way out?

Posted at 11:04am on Monday June 20th 2011

Pop over to the DistroWatch popularity stats page and you'll see something very interesting: Ubuntu is sliding down. As each set of data gets more recent, you can see the gap between Ubuntu and other distros narrowing - and in the last month, Mint and Fedora have overtaken it. So this leads to perhaps the biggest Open Ballot we've ever posted: has Ubuntu had its day? Has the switch to Unity, the talk of Wayland, and all the upheaval on the desktop driven traditional Linux users away?

Maybe this is inevitable, and Canonical isn't concerned, as it's chasing bigger markets. Or conversely, perhaps Canonical should try harder to keep old-time Linux users, as they're the advocates who will spread Linux in the future. Let us know your thoughts in the comments below, choosing a hipper name than Anonymous Penguin, and we'll read out the best in our upcoming podcast recording.

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Your comments

Yes, No, I mean VIM!

dazfuller - June 20, 2011 @ 11:23am

I don't think Ubuntu is on the way out as opposed to perhaps being used by a slightly different market these days.

I get the feeling that those of who are more power-users are moving over to other distros such as Fedora and Arch. There are those who are not keen on Unity and (shock, horror) do not want to use KDE are more likely to have moved to the likes of Xubuntu or Mint (or Fedora if Gnome 3 is more their thing). Then there are those who used Ubuntu for media centres who are likely to have moved to more specific variations such as Mythbuntu. And then there are those who have discovered Linux through Ubuntu but now want to explore other distributions.

Add all of these people to those who are more natural defectors (Banshee, Unity, PR disasters) and you'll probably find Ubuntu is more levelling out with it's intended target audience. Which is actually probably a good thing as they are then no longer in a position of trying to please all of the people all of the time, IMHO anyway.

Ubuntu, I think is not on

Anonymous_Daniel (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 11:37am

Ubuntu, I think is not on the way out but on the way to becoming the "Desktop" system the end users will snap up.

All the top distros are going down

avilella (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 11:40am

In the last month, all the top distros are going down:

1 Mint 2258<
2 Fedora 2174<
3 Ubuntu 1898<
4 Debian 1350<
5 openSUSE 1258<
6 Arch 1189<
7 PCLinuxOS 1004<
8 Puppy 952<
9 Mageia 803<
10 CentOS 770<
11 Mandriva 691<

Only Zorin in 12th place is gaining popularity

Normalizing?

Eric Mesa (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 11:45am

Maybe Ubuntu's just becoming normal? Every week all the other distros shuffle around depending on what's hot that week - what released or made the news. But Ubuntu was always on top because it was the distro to look at when you were first starting. So maybe, and it pains me to think this, there just aren't as many new people coming to Linux as there once were? Or maybe it's just that everyone recommends Mint nowadays. I know I do. Partially because stupid laws mean that Ubuntu, Fedora, et al can't include codecs for MP3s, videos, etc

All change on the Desktop

cwoollard - June 20, 2011 @ 12:06pm

Everything is changing.

Ubuntu has Unity
Fedora has Gnome Shell
Mint has Gnome Classic.

I think people are worried about such big changes to what they know and love. Therefore people are just staying with what they have for now.

In the long run, everything will return to normal. Providing the big distro's haven't done a KDE 4 ;)

Chris

New users

spaceyjase - June 20, 2011 @ 12:08pm

I think the real question is 'Is Ubuntu on the way out for new users?'. Maybe new Linux users, seeking Linux advise on which distro to install, see the negativity surrounding Unity and are unwilling to challenge their previous computing experience (via Windows) with something a little different. Not helped by the most vocal of the Linux community either...

It is still a lovely distro though and has a lot of nice features. Could the lack of growth be contributed to by Ubuntu hitting some level of peak use?

To many questions surrounding the interpretation of stats.

Repositioning?!!!

labinnsw - June 20, 2011 @ 12:16pm

It would seem from the current selection of desktop that Ubuntu is repositioning itself. It obviously is no longer targeted at the new comer. That role has been taken over by mint. I am using Lucid now and I will use 12.04 when it is released, but I will ignore unity and install cairo dock and cover the top panel with the gnome panel. If I were switching from Windows today, I am guessing I would be far more likely to use Mint.

I have no idea what ubuntu's repositioned market is though.

Ubuntu isn't going anywhere.

Stephen Ward (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 12:23pm

With Unity I have been considering a move to another distro, but really I'm unlikely to go very far. The stuff I love about ubuntu is the software centre, PPAs, the non-free repos etc so Mint or the other *buntu flavours are just fine for me.

I've said it before and I'll

DilbertDave (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 12:30pm

I've said it before and I'll say it again - it's all about choice! I choose Ubuntu (and Unity) for my netbook but Fedora (now with GNOME 3) for my main laptop.

That said, GNOME 3 is far from perfect and irritates me at times more than Unity has - but I've not heard too much negative comment on the subject, it appears to be OK for GNOME to fundamentally change everything but not for Canonical.

Like it or not Canonical have done a lot for Linux in recent years and have provided an excellent entry point for users who want to move away from Windows. My previous experience with RedHat (8/9) and early Fedora releases led me to ignore Linux for a few years - it was just too hard. About 5 years ago I heard a great deal of buzz about Ubuntu and it gave me a route back in without too much pain. Stuff just worked and the community was supportive.

Ubuntu may be suffering from people taking a look around at other distros at the moment but without it I doubt whether many of them would be considering Linux at all.

It depends who you look at

Tobi - June 20, 2011 @ 12:38pm

I have the feeling that Ubuntu is seen by more and more more experienced users as being dumbed down to much, and that quite a lot of them are moving to Arch. This is certainly dangerous, as those users are the ones that help with the distro - bug reports, paper cuts, new applications, bug triaging etc.

For many new users, Mint is simply the better distro these days - stable, a clear, good looking and well sorted interface and very beginner-friendly. It is certainly the distro I recommend when someone wants to try out Linux.

But I still think that for many people with limited Linux knowledge, Ubuntu has become a synonym for Linux. I hope it will continue to grow, and I believe that the 200 million users Mark Shuttleworth saw as a goal have some foundation in the real world - maybe Canonical has a big OEM / school / public offices deal in the back of their hand.

By the way: these captchas are ridiculously hard!

Distrowatch

Tobi - June 20, 2011 @ 12:41pm

I personally don't believe too much in the reliability of distro watch statistics in any case - I guess for example that a lot of the Fedora growth comes from the fact that many are curious about reviews of Gnome 3 in action.

Distrowatch

Tobi - June 20, 2011 @ 12:41pm

Recommending Linux is easy now

AnonymousPenguin (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 12:44pm

Recommending Linux is easy now, and the major distributions will all give the features that new users expect, in roughly the place that they expect them. There is no huge incentive to promote Ubuntu as there was once, when some major distributions required too many command-line hand-holding sessions.

On the other hand, the new Ubuntu is a total turn-off for large numbers of people who find the interface alien. Ubuntu's sponsor, Canonical, is also frequently stepping over ethical boundaries that put many Linux users off ever recommending it.

Probably Fedora is the most logical recommendation right now, with sensible defaults, easy regression to classic desktop and no major ethical compromises.

My Experience

Daniel (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 12:54pm

My personal experience, which I suspect reflects a lot of people's, is that, after coming to Ubuntu near the beginning because I didn't want to pay for Windows for my new computer and was savvy enough to explore, I've felt for some time that I should try a distro without (or at least with fewer) training wheels, because I'd like to further my skills, having -- thanks to Ubuntu! -- become someone who not only "gets", but even prefers and advocates Linux (and FOSS in general). But I was comfortable with Ubuntu, because it worked.

Now that I've experienced the frustration of Unity (and eventually fallen back to Metacity, which I also have to start manually after every restart) and perceive Canonical to be dumbing down the desktop more and more with every release, I've become pretty convinced that it's time to change.
I like Gnome, so I tried the Fedora live CD, and Gnome Shell seems to have the same basic stupdity behind it's redesign (Unity is basically a different implementation of Gnome Shell), which is that they're assuming that because tablets and netbooks are "the future", desktop users should have to use the same mouseless interface.

So now I'm considering a move to OpenSuse (which offers multiple Window Managers, and has stuck with Gnome 2.3, for now).

In summary, I have felt ready for "big boy Gnu/Linux" for sometime, but never had a compelling reason to switch, and now Canonical (and Gnome, to an extent) have given me a reason, and the switch hasn't happened yet, but seems imminent.

As I said, although this is just my experience, I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one.

Lies, damned lies and statistics...

bascule - June 20, 2011 @ 1:22pm

I'm not sure a huge amount can be inferred from this. Do page views from a single website really tell a coherent story?

If you wanted to put a positive spin on this, you could argue that so many people are now happily using Ubuntu that they are not browsing through Distrowatch for something else and that Ubuntu's marketing is so good that everyone who wants it just goes direct to the Ubuntu site to download it.

^ Spam website not very

buzzomatic - June 20, 2011 @ 1:22pm

^ Spam website not very interesting.

Anyhow, I'm still using Ubuntu, but I'm seriously considering installing Fedora instead. I really don't like Unity, nor that there's no proper support for Gnome 3.

I think Fedora will be able to polish the Gnome 3 desktop, because currently on Ubuntu there's a few small niggling issues that just make me frown.

I will definitely miss software PPAs, I can only hope that Fedora will (is?) doing something similar. Although launchpad.net itself is very confusing.

@avilella, Fedora may have gone down over the last month, but it's still quite a way up from where it was 3 months ago, and also from where it was 6 months ago.

The Ubuntu team is making it hard on themselves

Morten Juhl-Johansen Zölde-Fejér (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 1:54pm

I feel that the Ubuntu team has made it difficult for themselves by their extreme patching and changing of defaults. I have found Ubuntu somewhat buggy, which makes it unusable for me.
Still, it is a powerful package with a lot of inertia and a team willing to experiment, and I don't see it weakening. With things like Unity, they do set themselves up for some of the same lessons that Mandriva learned when they shipped with an experimental X server version which rendered that release notoriously unstable, and they lost a lot of users on that one.

Ubuntu's not on the way out, other distros are on the way in

spiffytech (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 2:04pm

That's a definite trend. The 12-month average shows Ubuntu with 30% more clicks than Fedora. The 3-month average shows Ubuntu and Mint less than one percent apart, then the 1-month average shows both distros ahead of Ubuntu. That's not the rise and fall of attention based on release cycles- two different distros gaining 30% hits in 12 months and pushing Ubuntu out of first place for what looks like the first time since it came out in 2004 is a change in the Linux landscape.

The interesting thing here is Ubuntu isn't declining- it still has roughly the number of clicks this month as it did over the last 12 months, and in the 2010 average. Mint and Fedora appear to be gaining popularity, but not at Ubuntu's expense.

Where are the additional users coming from? Maybe Sabayon, which fell from 700 hits 6 months ago to 400 this month. Or Slackware, which had a 22% fall in popularity over the same period (-126 votes), or Mepis (-20%, -87 votes), or Ultimate (-26%, -100).

The Linux community seems to be consolidating- migrating to a small number of dominant distros instead of being scattered across a lot of mildly-popular distros.

I don't think...

nai - June 20, 2011 @ 3:07pm

that Ubuntu is going away. But I think that it is doing the inevitable and level out. I think that Ubuntu has done a lot of things right from the start, but I would argue that that doesn't suffice to most users. There is always that little thing that will annoy someone to the point of switching to something else, be it Unity, Mono or even the "not contributing back" argument. Some people are lazy(like me) and some other distro offers a chance to save time during the install/everyday use.

I will say though, this is an interesting time with Gnome shell/classic, Unity, KDE, XFCE or [insert name of one of the 2342 other combinations] really starting to differ from one and other.

Fashion

Anonymous_Non_Daniel (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 3:46pm

Isn't Distrowatch simply an indicator of the fashions of what people are *looking* at? I agree with Tobi and bascule and think we could be more careful about spinning these statistics too far? It's not actual usage figures. I wonder if activity on things like the Ubuntu forums are heading down.

So no, I don't think Ubuntu has had it's day - it's just not shiny and new anymore but neither, for example, are Windows or toothpaste and they still do well. Interesting times though.

[Of course *radioactive* toothpaste used to exist didn't it, and that's not so popular now. Maybe Ubuntu is *radioactive* toothpaste - in that case definitely "yes"]

People whine about Unity

tgandrews (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 4:01pm

People whine about Unity because it is new and they have to relearn what they've known for years. Knowing something doesn't make it better. Thr guys and gals at Canonical are smart people (just like In Cupertino and Redmond) they won't have taken this decision lightly. This backlash slowing Ubuntu's growth is a short term reaction from some loud people in the community. Some people will leave but come back when their new distro isn't supported as well and don't have the time to work it
out.

My personal experience

A Teenager (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 5:08pm

All I can say is is that I always used to use ubuntu just because of the documentation and community. I'd tried a lot of other distributions, but in the end there were just a couple of things which didn't quite work meaning that I always went back to ubuntu.

However, when 11.04 came out, I bit the bullet and swapped to arch, just because I didn't like the way canonical / ubuntu were going, and also I found it too unstable.

When ubuntu sorts out its problems and if I run into difficulties with arch, I'll probably migrate back.

yes, no and maybe

thetrollwholivesunderyourbed (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 5:23pm

You can support any of those positions if you look at the data in the right way, the real question is "Does it matter if Ubuntu is slightly less popular than before?" (and even if it matters does it matter that it matters? ;) ) As long as people are still using Linux it is all fine right?... Right?

Ubuntu effectively peaked at Jaunty (9.04)

jargon (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 6:26pm

Karmic was already an indicator (albeit a somewhat hindsighted one) of the impending doom brought about by change for change's sake. Some of the reasons you see ubuntu declining are:

Shuttleworth's utter disregard for the community, which started the ongoing exodus of what were once staunch ubuntu using linux-savvy users. Myself included. 9.04 was the last ubuntu I used, hoping they would eventually come to their senses, but the less than lucid choices made in 10.04 were the straw that broke the camel's back.

If you log into the ubuntu forums and IRC channel, you will find the quality of available information is also on the decline, due to the dumbing-down-effect having driven away many of the so-called power users. Hence the recent PR-buzzword infested attempts of jonobacon to create some kind of group dedicated to Ubuntu power users. Got some news for you, Jono. We're gone. And we're not coming back!

And then Unity and the anti-GNOME fiasco. Yes, I guess when you go off the deep end, why not dive in head first, right? Explain to me, somebody will you please, just how is it exactly would a non-technical Windows or Mac user be in any way attracted to Ubuntu today, given the prospect of having to completely relearn their entire workflow (yes, the one they had been just fine with for years,literally) just because some rich South African thinks it's "innovative"? Really?

I think not, my friends. Ubuntu is going exactly where those of us who left predicted it would go..... DOWN!

As some of the others here have already said, these days I recommend Linux Mint (even LMDE) to new users, because the only real way to attract new users to Linux is by providing the smooth and stable transition based on *familiarity* of UX. It's not quantum physics.

Eventually Ubuntu will go away, much like other distros over the years have gone away. And life goes on. With bigger and better distros. Hopefully not named after increasingly ridiculous animals.

Depends...

love-ubuntu-haters (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 6:52pm

Many don't like the new interface, because it's not like how they are used to, and think it is a bit too much like Mac OS.
I used to use Mint, but then tried Ubuntu 11.04. Now I use it as my main desktop and I consider myself one of the more traditional/geeky Linux users, as I have been using Linux since Suse 9.2

People who are used to the old way want Mint as it hasn't changed and this means we have Gnome-shell, Unity and Gnome 2.32 as more choice but within the same GTK framework so its all compatible. Ubuntu is on the way out for 'traditionalists', and people who don't like the change/dont want to change, but for new users who just want The Shiny, it is still a viable option.

Currently using a mix

Vikings eat Penguins for lunch (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 7:33pm

No.

Because right now I am on a Pinguy OS, my desktop is using Mint.
The thing is that this are all ubuntu distros, just like ubuntu is bast on debian.

And my other two laptops, run ubuntu 10.10,

my nr 2 argument:
Distrowatch is not a good stats indicator. Sure it's one indicator, but I would not give it more then 20% creedence to the real world use of distros.

Interesting. but the numbers dont mean squat

Chris Cook (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 8:00pm

Is it a blimp or the edge of a cliff. Has Ubuntu fallen or has everyone else risen. Also the stats only count page views and don't relate to installations.

Personally I think Canonical has shot Ubuntu in the foot with the way it has handled Unity. I think the stats reflect the dissatisfaction of some users looking to jump ship. It doesn't mean they have left, or wont be back when they remember Ubuntu ROCKS!

By the way I am using Ubuntu with the classic interface. I will try Unity again after the next release

Why does Ubuntu have to be

Dense Dan... (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 8:15pm

Why does Ubuntu have to be the centre of attention?

I don't use it, don't intend to and really don't care if its
popularity is waning...

Nuff said.

Bazza...

I jumped ship...

Alisdair (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 8:50pm

about four months ago---to Archlinux. No regrets so far and glad to feel I am back 'in charge' of my own system; well, as much as I'm ever in charge of it! Thanks Ubuntu, it was fun while it lasted, but time for me at least to move on.

I think Ubuntu has plenty of potential at the 'mass market' end of the Linux spectrum, but the way things are going it seems like it's getting less fun to play with and call your own, maybe less useful for people who need to do serious work too, but I'm not really qualified to comment.

But Unity rocks!

Anonymous Ubuntu Fanboy (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 10:05pm

When Mr Shuttleworth first announced that Unity would be featured in Ubuntu proper, I thought it would be a complete and utter disaster, but then I tried it and realised that I could not have been more wrong. Unity has to be the most unified and cohesive Linux desktop I have ever used, and I have tried many!

I think Mark and the Ubuntu developers have shown great vision by introducing Unity at this point -- it has invigorated the project and turned Ubuntu from being a run-of-the-mill GNOME desktop distribution, into something new and exciting with huge potential.

Unity rocks! Really, it does.

-- an ex Debian Openbox user

Maybe Just Maybe....

Captain Spambot Of Tinland Wompwomp (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 10:31pm

The distrowatch numbers aren't exactly a good basis for argument. They only show how many times a website has been visited?

Maybe a way to look at it is though, People started on Ubuntu and now are moving away to other systems to see what else is going on, or the stability and constant change is becoming a problem for people.

Personaly? I moved to Arch (I'm in no way a linux god) because I wanted to learn more about how everything works and I learned more installing Arch than I did using Ubuntu for years.

Yes it looks pretty, But my desktop ISNT a notebook. Nor a laptop. Unity just doesnt make sense on the desktop (In my opinion, Neither does Gnome 3 really)

But an alternative view? didn't all this malarky occur with KDE4 aswell? Calls of Heracy at the change? People went back.

Let's jsut ride it out and see how it goes.

Not going away

BrisPete (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 11:32pm

I've been using Ubuntu since 6.06 (Dapper Drake). I think it's got better and better, as I'm sure have other distros - Fedora, Linux Mint, etc.

I like Natty Narwhal with Unity. I understand why some don't like it: it's new and different. But it is also the future of the desktop GUI. Gnome 3 is similar, MS Windows looks like it's heading in a similar direction as is Mac OS.

It'll take a while but Ubuntu will be top of the pile again.

@Anonymous Ubuntu

buzzomatic - June 20, 2011 @ 11:36pm

@Anonymous Ubuntu Fanboy

It's no more innovative than Gnome 3, and still comes across as a "dick" move from the Ubuntu guys who seemingly couldn't be bothered to work with the Gnome team.

Ubuntu doing a Microsoft

Eponymus Pingu (not verified) - June 20, 2011 @ 11:59pm

I hate Unity. I hate most of the "Improvements". Software centre, big and slow. Indicator Applet showing icons as menu items with no tooltips. I used to love Ubuntu. Now seriously considering switching to Mint or Debian. Wouldn't recommend Ubuntu anymore.

Canonical is changing Ubuntu as Microsoft did with Vista - making it nasty.

I said it in April...

Prolific Puffin - June 21, 2011 @ 12:39am

I PREDICTED this when 11.04 came out.

Go back a few open ballots, and you will find my rant.

I personally reverted to 10.04 (for the extra year of updates) and added another partition with Xubuntu 11.04 on both of my machines when it happened. I stated plainly that Mint was going to pass Ubuntu by.

I was right.

XFCE forever (or until they screw THAT up too...) !!

One more thing...

Prolific Puffin - June 21, 2011 @ 12:40am

I too no longer suggest Ubuntu, but Xubuntu.

All the taste, fewer calories, Unity-free...

Mint is Bland

Anonymous Penguin x (not verified) - June 21, 2011 @ 4:50am

I switched an old computer I use as a media center running Ubuntu 10.04 to Linux Mint, after reading all the glowing reports of this distro. I still have 10.10 on my main workstation and have been hesitating to upgrade given the negativity around Unity.

Actually I'm not really impressed with Mint. It has an old-fashioned windows xp feel. It's Linux for people that would rather be on windows and don't want to take any risks. And the whole attitude of 'Ubuntu done right' is frankly cloying.

It's good that Canonical is trying to mix things up a bit. More choice and risk-taking is a GOOD thing.

Is Ubuntu declining?

Valid Question Asker (not verified) - June 21, 2011 @ 5:15am

Ask yourself, do you picture the average member of the Ubuntu target audience visiting DistroWatch?

I think you have your answer.

Don't care

Mohan Ram (not verified) - June 21, 2011 @ 5:37am

I started using Ubuntu since it's second release, as the first on was a brown Debian. I was amazed at how it worked well. It had the right drivers for the Voodoo 3000, and the right resolution for my monitor and stuff (this was on my secondary computer). So I started using it more and more and it converted me as 100% Linux user, before with Red Hat/Mandrake/Fedora I kept taking it off ever other month and going back to Windows as it didn't work well at all. So I don't care if Ubuntu is #1 or if it's #3000 I will use it as it's my distro of choice.

For People That Don't Like Unity..

Penguin (not verified) - June 21, 2011 @ 7:48am

Give Pinguy OS a try.

No Ubuntu is not on the way out

Anonymous Penguin - June 21, 2011 @ 8:53am

Ubuntu (Unity) may not be for old school Linux geeks but the kids are going to love it.

Not at all!

Dylan C (not verified) - June 21, 2011 @ 11:05am

There is no way that Ubuntu is on the way out... people are just exploring the alternatives at the moment because Unity has given Ubuntu haters, Fedora and Arch lovers the opportunity to spread FUD.

People are just checking out websites of Ubuntu based distros like Mint because of all the FUD about Unity.

I tried Unity with a neutral point of view and I must say for a first release Unity is amazing and Canonical did a great job on it! Im using Unity 2D on my Netbook and now Unity on my desktop. Ive realised that its the more efficient and elegant way to use Ubuntu.

Even if people decide to go with Mint, Pinguy or Zorin OS... I don't care.. its still Ubuntu thats winning on the desktop!

Canonical is Killing the Linux Desktop

Xavier Sythe (not verified) - June 21, 2011 @ 12:28pm

When users come from Windows, the first thing they want is UI familiarity. Mint doesn't resemble Windows Vista/7, and Ubuntu doesn't even resemble Windows!
If Canonical supported KDE, users would realize that dozens of desktop effects, and thousands of one-click installable themes/widgets ARE A GOOD THING!
Not to mention blurred translucency, and the unparalleled feature-set. For example, KDE 4.7 has GRUB integration, and allows you to reboot into any GRUB entry, including Windows, right from the menu.

Ubuntu is Ubuntu

Y. Warshinski (not verified) - June 21, 2011 @ 2:42pm

1. The Distrowatch hits are a measure of nothing.
2. Ubuntu goes up and down on Distrowatch. It means nothing (see 1)
3. Canonical is driving toward that initial IPO and the cash windfall. Popularity of the Ubuntu desktop is not 100% of that effort, but only a part. "Ubuntu" is the mythological component of Canonical.
4. The question is nonsensical. Only Mint has come close for "hits". "Hits" are mythology. And Mint is Ubuntu_friendlier_to_user.
5. The linux desktop accounts for less than one (1) percent of net traffic, except perhaps in Cuba.
6. Because of the reality of (5), this whole issue is mooted.
7. Ubuntu is what it is. Any of the pre-(uber)configured distros are a bear to reconfig and Ubuntu is the worst.
8. Slackware trumps them all. Slackware favors the user.

You knew Ubuntu was a scam immediately, with its phony definition. If you think the definition is solid, you've never heard Jacob Zuma sing "Umshini wami". "Umshini wami"trumps Ubuntu.

Try this distro, or this distro, or maybe this distro

GeeeMan (not verified) - June 21, 2011 @ 4:02pm

Also you should keep in mind that the rankings on Distrowatch may be unrealistically inflated. I know when I was first searching for a Linux distro to call home, I downloaded and installed several before I found the one that made me happy. I would think that the Distrowatch does not take that into account, as you can't tell what a user will do when they download a distro.

With Fedora releasing with GNOME 3, my guess is that a lot of unhappy Unity users downloaded Fedora just to have a look, therefor inflating Fedora's numbers, and the same can be said for Linux Mint, Unhappy unity users downloading Mint for the older style Gbnome desktop.

Distrowatch numbers should not be considered a true measure of the popularity of any one distro over another.

changes

DJP (not verified) - June 21, 2011 @ 7:06pm

Is Ubuntu on the way out? No, but I think the latest change of forcing Unity down people's throats has bruised the brand. The people who push Unity seem overzealous in the belief that it is the future. In my opinion, Linux has thrived because it offers so many choices and Ubuntu became the most popular distro because it
1. provided a reliable version that "just worked" regardless of the hardware you were using
2. made the installation process simple for newbies looking to try it.

I think those 2 perceived advantages over other distros are now gone and there is a sizeable collection of Ubuntu users who are unhappy with Unity and the loss of choice and are looking around for other alternatives. If Ubuntu gets rid of the option to use Gnome in future releases then I will definitely move on. Unity has brought disunity into the Ubuntu camp and that's why the gap is narrowing.

more pertinently, is distrowatch.org no longer relevant?

eoinmcg (not verified) - June 22, 2011 @ 10:01am

i'm sure if you were to look at the download figures for each distro the figures would tell a different story.

Ubuntu is no longer "easy"

OLd Penguin (not verified) - June 22, 2011 @ 10:47am

The new Unity is the first desktop that I have ever used that I have had to look for tutorials on how to open an application!

Strange thing is Debian now seems easier than Mint or Ubuntu, it plays videos and mp3 without making the user search for codex.

Perhaps it will now become more popular to respin Debian than Ubuntu?

I agree with eoinmcg

fraxinus (not verified) - June 22, 2011 @ 11:43am

... that it is download stats that really count, and not DistroWatch hits.

However, I think it almost inevitable that Ubuntu's desktop innovations will lead to confusion, and to many of their users looking around at what else is on offer.

My main fear is that people new to desktop Linux will find this all really confusing too, with the shipping of an immature DE as default on the best known distro and the simultaneous departure of Gnome into unproven territory. If only Shuttleworth and the Gnome Foundation had been able to resolve their differences in a mature fashion.

I am a Minter and I applaud their decision to keep on with the Gnome 2 desktop. If and when this ceases I shall be moving to XFCE.

I do not like KDE 4 at all, but I do think that the KDE devs are right to work on separate editions for netbooks and portables, rather than attempting a 'one-size-fits-all" desktop solution.

Agree with comments above that XFCE is becoming more and more important to the future of desktop Linux. Let us pray that this is not messed up too! For many of us, the traditional desktop metaphor is NOT 'broken' or 'outdated'.

Does it Matter

Tony Hughes - Blackpool LUG (not verified) - June 22, 2011 @ 1:29pm

In the long run it does not matter one way or the other, before Ubuntu, Mandriva (Mandrake) were the Noob’s choice distro as they were seen as the most user friendly way into using Linux. Then along came Ubuntu and made things a little simpler to encourage a whole new user base to the Linux OS, this was when I joined in after years of frustration with the Windows Blue Screen of Death.

However things progress, the advent of hand held portable computer equipment integrated into mobile phones and the new tablet devices requires a different type of user interface and it is this market that Mark is steering Canonical towards, he has always focused on the new user and simplicity of use and the new Unity desk top is geared towards touch screen users so will eventually be very successful.

For those of us using our desktop PC for serious work flow tasks such as Image, video and sound editing or serious office applications, the application running on the PC is more important then the DTE it is running on. I personally want a DTE that does not get in the way when I want to do a task or tinker with the system to optimise it for my use. Unity and Gnome 3 are not for me they don’t work on a 20” non touch screen where input is by Keyboard, mouse or graphics tablet.

Ubuntu is a Good Linux Distro but others have adapted to meet the needs of more traditional Linux and, dare I say, Windows and Mac users that enable the OS to sit in the background and let us get on with using the PC to do what we need it for. In another 5 years we may be talking along the same lines about a distro that is just emerging now, gains a wide user base and then is superseded by something that is still yet to emerge, but there will always be a need for the distro that meets the needs of the wide (tec savvy) user base that Linux has.

there is only 1 thing worse that being talked about...

Peter (not verified) - June 22, 2011 @ 3:15pm

...and that's not being talked about.

If Unity had no good parts and if Unity was obviously awful and unusable then we would not even be having this discussion - Ubuntu would have been forgotten 3 months ago. But people still use it and feel a certain loyalty to it.

Ubuntu is at a difficult stage - it has to change and move on and it has to create new user groups, audiences, customers, partners and sales. In order to do this it will alienate some of those fickle Distrowatch readers. And if it gets great again and untouchably better again those fickle Distrwatch readers will flock back in their droves.

Gnome 3 Tweaks

loki1950 - June 22, 2011 @ 5:17pm

To all the fedora Gnome shell users who feel it lacks functionality `yum install gnome-tweak-tool` Lots of tips on what to do with it on the fedora forums including doing away with it ;)
As to the main question can we tell from the available data whether this is just a shift in market share or is the market growing in general.

Enjoy the Choice :)

Lack Of Focus

Bruce Almighty (not verified) - June 22, 2011 @ 6:05pm

I think Ubuntu chop and change stuff too much. Their target userbase, as I understand it is your average Joe, non-geek who wants a consistent and familiar experience and does not have the time or inclination to learn lots of new stuff. I think the way Ubuntu changes so much from release to release would tend to alienate such a person.

For instance, my mum might just have got to grips with Gnome 2 style Ubuntu and then if she booted the computer up and Unity was there instead she would be flummoxed.

The default selection of software changes too much. PiTiVi was introduced in 10.04 and has now, I believe, been dropped as a default... F-Spot was introduced as a default and later dropped... Evolution will be dropped in favour of Thunderbird... GIMP was dropped. There may be good reasons for this from a technical standpoint, but to the average user it comes across as indecisive.

Compare that with Mac OS X. iPhoto, iTunes, iMovie, Safari, Garageband... all of these apps have been defaults for donkey's years... new features may get added, but the basic user experience remains reassuringly familiar.

It was me!

Matron Jack (not verified) - June 22, 2011 @ 6:13pm

The reason Ubuntu is less popular now is that I put the Voodoo Curse on them they day they had the audacity to move the buttons to the wrong side.

(The left hand side has always been associated with the devil... do a Google search for "left hand devil" if you don't believe me.)

Ubuntu's Not On The Way Out For Me

David Tarrant (not verified) - June 22, 2011 @ 6:22pm

I have two desktops, a laptop, and two netbooks. After trying the latest Mint/Fedora etc, I've just upgraded them all to Ubuntu 10.04 LTS (the netbooks are running the netbook edition) and I'm very satisfied. They are networked and everything works smoothly. Great repository and package manager. I have also installed Ubuntu 11.04 on an 8G SD card which I can boot on either of the netbooks. I'm getting to like Unity. It looks pretty and once you find your way around, it does all you need on a netbook with limited screen space. One of my netbooks is an eee PC 701 with a 7" screen (800x480), so the dock autohide feature is essential. Only problem is that it's slow to boot, but I guess they will fix that in due course.

Questionable data

Steady Eddie (not verified) - June 22, 2011 @ 6:25pm

I am not convinced that the number of hits on Distrowatch is a reliable measure of popularity. I myself never visit Distrowatch and I am sure lots of other Linux users don't either.

Maybe the data shows Distrowatch is becoming less popular with Ubuntu users, rather than Ubuntu itself becoming less popular.

(Disclaimer: I am not an Ubuntu user)

Smartphone UIs Are Becoming More Familiar Than Windows.....

David Tarrant (not verified) - June 22, 2011 @ 6:54pm

.....so I believe Canonical has got it right. Ubuntu with Unity has the potential to challenge seriously Android on tablets.

I tried Ubuntu some time ago

Unknown Penguin (not verified) - June 22, 2011 @ 9:57pm

I tried Ubuntu some time ago and didn't get on with it, it was being dubbed as the first "easy" distro but it was no easier than Suse.

More recently I have tried LMDE which I find really good!! Last week I decided to look at Ubuntu again because I wanted to try Unity, after a week of trying to get Ubuntu to recognize the partitions on my hard drive I gave up. I am now happily using LMDE again as that gave me zero installation problems.

If Ubuntu is on the way out then maybe its because lots of people can't install the latest version.

Wanting Something That Keeps Working

mikebravo (not verified) - June 23, 2011 @ 12:51am

I have been using Ubuntu for three years, but lately each release has made me feel more like a beta tester than a user. Jumped ship for LMDE and found it lacking key features e.g. NO SOUND. Presently happy with SUSE. I'm not sure I hae found a home but at any rate I see no compelling reason to ever go back to Ubuntu.

Tempo Is Key

Stephen Michael Kellat (not verified) - June 23, 2011 @ 5:30am

The tempo for releases is perhaps problematic. Ubuntu seems similar to a perpetual teenager going through growth spurt after growth spurt. Too much change can result in not having any sense of what is "normal".

Then again, I'm part of a nascent effort to create an openbox-desktop sort of metapackage to reduce complexity and make for a simpler desktop. That would help create a sense of normalcy and familiarity compared to the GNOME desktop product stream's turbulence. Disruptive change is great but constant turbulence is counter-productive.

Picture yourself aboard an aircraft. You hit a single pocket of turbulence and then things stabilize. The aircraft course is changed but your destination remains the same. Hitting turbulence over and over in a flight can create delays, discomfort, and potentially even diversion to a different destination.

Finding the happy medium between stagnation and frenetic activity hasn't been found yet within Ubuntu. This too shall pass. Until then, the core may well be those able to hang on for the wild ride that is developing.

Ubuntu becoming too foreign for first time Linux users

Samloops (not verified) - June 23, 2011 @ 5:45am

As a long-time Linux user (from the days of Corel Linux and Fedora Core 1), I might grudgingly allow myself to be converted over to Unity because I have been with Ubuntu for so long now... or maybe it is time to go back to Fedora. But I cannot seriously think that any Windows user is going to be convinced to switch over to Linux when presented with Unity and with no means (as of Ubuntu 11.10) to get to a familiar desktop. Too bad. Yes, I think they are on the way out as they have abandoned new switch-over users and have decided instead to gee-whiz it up for the Linux crowd.

Ubuntu: unnecessary distro nowadays

Crocket (not verified) - June 23, 2011 @ 9:51am

The Ubuntu did it job atracting many many users, but there is no need for it anymore. It turned to new interfaces (unity), which in present state are hardly usable. Gnome2->Gnome3 and KDE3->KDE4 was also same kind of transitions, but both were more or less painfull, but succesfull: Gnome 3 has it speed, KDE 4 - powerfull interface. Unity looks like primitive gnome 3. Gnome 3 was logical step in my opinion: Gnome 2 looked really outdated and slower than XFCE, Ubuntu developers knew that, but took wrong path. Now most users are in Mint.

Ok, so I went and installed

buzzomatic - June 23, 2011 @ 10:23am

Ok, so I went and installed Fedora 15 like I said I would.

Oh boy... what a waste of time. Everything worked out of the box, except I couldn't play any of my music, watch any of my movies or tv shows.

Of course, it offers to search for plugins to play my file types, but it never actually finds them. I spend two hours tracking down the packages that I needed to isntall, and still most of my music (ALAC format) would not play.

After that, someone suggested that the gstreamer packages in rawhide (unstable packages) contained a fix, so I followed some instructions to install those.

Something went wrong on the way, and now the operating system is unbootable.

*sigh*

Moving from Ubuntu

Martin Penguin (not verified) - June 23, 2011 @ 1:58pm

I discovered linux through Maemo when given a Nokia N800. I installed Ubuntu on my desktop and have used it ever since. However, I find Unity ugly and feel Ubuntu has been making erratic, half realised, changes in direction since Mark Shuttleworth changed his role at Canonical. I enjoy Gnome 3 on my laptop so this weekend I will move my desktop to Fedora 15 too and leave Canonical to flounder around seeking profitability without messing me about.

What is DistroWatch popularity stats?

Anonymous Penguin xx (not verified) - June 23, 2011 @ 11:39pm

DistroWatch popularity stats page is mostly related to the downloads each distro makes through a DW link. That's confirmed by looking at the prime places in the 7 day range. Its easy to see that they're the same that have announcements released in the previous days.

Excluding Ubuntu, non english speaking users prefer to download from DW due to the standard way they have been presenting the release announcements.

Ubuntu have sites localized in most countries and local users download from local Ubuntu sites. Its a huge number out from DW stats. To know about Distro popularity its more easy to find the average daily web traffic at each one web sites. Ubuntu may easily be 10 times greater than the next to follow it.

From Warty To December 2010.....

autocrosser (not verified) - June 24, 2011 @ 5:28am

I moved to Ubuntu right after the Warty release & became active in the Testing & Development forums around the release of Breezy Badger---I actively tested for Ubuntu until December 2010, when I was "told" by one of the developers that I could either test Unity or find the door.....I had been involved with Gnome-Shell testing for almost 2 years at that point &----well--Mint had just released a 64bit version of LMDE...so I took the path out.... Was sorry to go, the Testing forums were the PLACE to be at Ubuntuforums....we were a lively, vibrant group...pity to see it's all gone now..

I hope you are happy Mark...I did enjoy talking to you...I wish that towards the latter years you would have listened more to us.

Corporate Takeover

Old Phart (not verified) - June 25, 2011 @ 3:37pm

I see 2 things happening with Linux.
1) More and more corporations are wresting control of Linux. At some point Ubuntu is mandated to start making some money, this involves not necessarily increasing the user base, but increasing the paying user base.
2) Employees of these corporations are not interested in adding functionality for the user base, but adding a bunch of useless features and changes which will attract the attention of their corporate bosses, and help secure promotions. A debugged smoothly running intuitive application is not nearly as obvious to a clueless MBA as a bunch of glitzy add-ons, or a useless change to a functioning system.

Not the end, but a big problem for Ubuntu

Hezy (not verified) - June 26, 2011 @ 2:42am

I left Ubuntu when Lucid was released. The upgrade from Karmic broke Gnome on my computer, so I installed Mint 8 Xfce (I already had some previous experience with Xfce). I still use Mint (Debian Edition) with Xfce, and it works fine for me. I follow the forums of both Mint and Xfce. Until recently there was a steady flow of refugees from Ubuntu, but it turned to a remarkable wave since the release of Natty. Does it mark the end of Ubuntu? I doubt it, but Ubuntu has a disconnected with a significant portion of its user base.

Ubuntu based Distros are making difference

Rohan Golwalkar (not verified) - June 26, 2011 @ 9:57am

Ubuntu is still on and will be strong.
The difference might be that every month you get a new distro based on Ubuntu - add those distro;s to the number and you can get an idea about the Ubuntu base.

So its still gonna be around and its been the top distro in distowatch since i 2005-2006.

Also other reason is users got proficient with Ubuntu and are trying Fedora and Suse as well.

I guess that explains the slight drop but Ubuntu is still gonna be the in the top distro race as ever.

Not the end, but probly also not the beginning Canonical wanted

Robert Zimbardo (not verified) - June 30, 2011 @ 3:42pm

I have been using Ubuntu as dual boot since 8.04 and fully since 9.10. I tried 11.04 three times, once on my laptop, two times on a desktop, and it was really just crap in the sense of buggy, unintuitive, and uncustomizable. Canonical is a company, they can do what they want with the free OS, and yes, I know know it's all about choice, but choose I did: I am on Mint 11 now, and while I would still like to go back, Canonical has a lot of fixing to do - otherwise I will stay with Mint 11 or switch to Debian or Pinguy.

I don't like it as it is right now

zark (not verified) - July 1, 2011 @ 1:28am

since ubuntu 7 I became a loyal follower until recent times
when canonical star making changes don't get me wrong I am a novice user and I may not now much but I do not like the way ubuntu looks right now and I'm thinking in going with linuxmint( another favorite)

Unity was the final straw

Emperor Penguin (not verified) - July 2, 2011 @ 3:19am

After it became apparent that that was their vision, I switched to Arch

Although a long time Ubuntu

glnagrom (not verified) - July 2, 2011 @ 4:08pm

Although a long time Ubuntu user, I struggled with Unity and its global menus. Reluctantly, I decided to try Fedora 15 with Gnome 3. Having now used both, I can’t for the life of me understand Ubuntu's decision to implement Unity over Gnome 3. Simply put, Gnome 3 is the most polished, elegant, and functional desktop environment I have ever used.

When I sit down and use Gnome 3 I get the feeling that someone stepped back from the table and asked, “How can we re-invent the desktop environment in such a way that users have a fundamentally more enjoyable and productive experience?” It seems they put away all preconceived notions and built from the ground up with the user in mind. The result is something completely innovative that has indeed enhanced both my productivity and my overall computing experience.

With Unity, I get the feeling that someone said, “Here’s an idea from Macintosh that works well. Here’s one from Windows. Oh, and let’s grab this piece from Gnome 2. Also–let’s try to make it so it can someday be utilized on a smart phone.” The result is a product that feels cobbled together when compared to Gnome 3.

Fedora and Ubuntu

tawney pelt (not verified) - July 3, 2011 @ 2:24pm

The old gnome desktop? Take this from an old Apple Mac studio. Old Gnome 2 was ancient Apple 8 to us. With tiny icons with stupid little shadows, come on linux, change was needed. Using Fedora 15 here, runs excellent. And yes gnome 3 looks like the new mac and tablet desktop and that is excellent for me! From phone to tablet to desktop, one smart system, way to go.

Ubuntu

eipapp (not verified) - July 4, 2011 @ 4:05pm

Good grief, I certainly hope not. I don't have a problem with the new Unity desktop and feel that it could/would get more people to use Linux. While many people like working with command lines,etc. many do not and if Linux is ever to become more mainstream it will have to appeal to the masses and I think Unity does that. I've tried over distro's (Fedora, Mint, OpenSuse etc.) and none of them give me anything I can't already get from Ubuntu. I especially like the Ubuntu One Cloud feature with the auto backups for my important files. This gives me an added level of security I don't get with the other OS's and it's totally seamless.

Tablet OS?

Nonymous penguin (not verified) - July 7, 2011 @ 10:07pm

When I look at Unity interface I see a really great tablet or embedded device UI. Personally I would love to see Ubuntu slide into that market. Imagine Unity on a nice 10" tablet. Of course Emacs would be a bit of a pain in the ass...

its summer

pip010 (not verified) - July 8, 2011 @ 3:58pm

maybe its just summer and 'normal' people do not jump on fixing their computers while sun is shining ???? :P

clerk

Pat McClung (not verified) - July 10, 2011 @ 3:31pm

I think perhaps that Ubuntu, because of its orientation toward new users, is the distro that new users start on, and then some of the more demanding move to a distro more suited to what they need. The new user is the one most likely to switch distros, although there will be more churn with the unity gnome3 moves, which some won't like. But lower numbers for Ubuntu may mean fewer new users coming in. Only about 15 million users for the Linux desktop (a minuscule number). But there is Android, if you want to call that Linux also.

New users can soon become fans!

Montala (not verified) - July 10, 2011 @ 5:44pm

I am sure there must be a steady stream of coumuter users who are looking to change to, or to at least experiment with, a 'new' or at least alternative, operating system.

They are getting fed up with Windows, their hackintoshed netbook has just crashed after trying to install the latest Apple update, so they are looking for something else to try.

How about this Linux thing they say, I have heard of Ubuntu, so let's try that one first. "Oh look, this new desktop looks a bit like the Apple one I rather liked".... and before you know it, another user is hooked!

They may of course decide to try one of the others, such as Mint also, of course... but Ubuntu was easy to install, and it recognised all their hardware... seems quite also to use, without all that "sudo" stuff, so they stick with it, and another new user... who will in time hopefully become an old user, is on board, and will tell all his mates about this great new O/S he has just "found".

Well that's certainly what could happen!

Might I suggest?

win2linconvert (not verified) - August 1, 2011 @ 8:30am

The nice thing about Linux is there is so much choice. I am not at all excited about Gnome3 or Unity, but being a Linux user I have a lot of choice that simply doesn't exist in the Windows and Apple worlds. I like Gnome2 and am very unhappy that it will possibly be going away soon, but I have the freedom to move on and find something else that will suit my needs, if not my likes. With Linux I never have to worry about being chained down to one particular way of doing things, unlike in the Windows and Apple worlds. Plus, lest we forget, the Linux world is full of innovative and creative people who are always coming up with alternative ways of doing things and in some cases, finding ways of keeping things as similar and familiar as possible for themselves and like minded individuals. Who knows, maybe someone is already working on a Gnome2 like fork or derivative. In the Linux and Open source world it's possible. And as much as I like Linux, it's not the only alternative OS out there. There's the BSD and it's various derivatives. There's Haiku, and other's that I can't think of off the top of my head. Just do a Google search for alternative operating systems. What I'm getting at is that maybe instead of getting upset and disgruntled, we should just exercise our ability and right to choose a distro or OS that is more in line with our wants and needs and let the ones that don't suffer the consequences of our freedom of choice. We should also not be afraid to use these same powers of freedom of choice when we shop and when we vote, those of us who can that is.

Ubuntu is down because of

Steven (not verified) - August 24, 2011 @ 2:08am

Ubuntu is down because of Unity/Gnome shell debacle. People who rely on their system/desktop want stability and ease of
use Keyboard "shortcuts" take time to execute and are NOT intuitive to users who are not part of the crippled "tablet/phone" user base - best that could happen to Gnome now is to fork it and maintain development for the Gnome 2 base as a GUI for the disaffected users - KDE 3.5.9 is still
available as the Trinity Desktop and works fine - much faster than KDE 4 and on par with XFCE - someone please take over development of Gnome 2

Ubuntu OS vs Unity desktop

WildCard9 (not verified) - August 29, 2011 @ 6:59pm

I have given the Unity desktop a try on a few different PCs. On one of them, Unity did not work at first, but one video driver update later, it started right now. On another laptop, it would not run at all, so I tried a different desktop while sticking with Ubuntu 11.04 I finally GOT IT that I need to separate the Ubuntu OS from the desktop I use in my head.

I think that is both a confusion point and a VERY strong point for Ubuntu. Unity didn't work on the laptop, so I installed the xubuntu-desktop. It worked but not well, so I installed the lubuntu-desktop. Now that worked well!! All without having to change the Ubuntu install on my system.

More people need to be taught this: if you don't like the desktop in the distro you installed, you can install another desktop without reinstalling the entire Ubuntu OS. Suddenly I am not looking at 5 different flavors of Ubuntu 11.04, I am looking at one Ubuntu 11.04 OS with 5 different desktops that I can choose from, and can install all within the same OS install. Wow, is that powerful and very useful!!

so thats what distro watch is...

Chubbs (not verified) - January 23, 2013 @ 10:44am

Ubuntu was the first alternate desktop other than windows and Apple I heard of (this was before android came out and after the release of unity) I installed Ubuntu when my windows net-book failed and wow it revived my old computer for another 3 years during which it was quite reliable. Ubuntu is how I learned of Linux I had never even heard of distro watch until recently I have introduced Ubuntu to many of my friends and have never thought of changing. Linux mint seems nice played with it a little.